Africa's natural gas sector is attracting $250+ billion in capital investment through 2035, yet 70-85% of associated insurance premiums-approximately $1.8-2.4 billion annually-flow offshore to London, Munich, and Bermuda markets. This capital flight is ending. Nigeria enacted comprehensive insurance reform in 2025 mandating local placement. Ghana, Kenya, and Mozambique have strengthened retention requirements. South Africa is revising domiciliation thresholds.
Brent crude has slumped to $62.50 per barrel, down nearly 25% from early 2025 peaks and hovering at levels last seen in 2021. WTI trades below $60. The IEA projects oversupply of 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 while demand growth remains anemic...
Risk Signal
Brent crude at $62.50 represents more than a pricing problem-it's a multi-line insurance stress test. African oil-dependent economies budgeted for $75-80 Brent, creating estimated $15-20 billion aggregate fiscal shortfalls across Nigeria, Angola, Gabon, and Chad. For underwriters, this triggers a cascade: political risk...
Payment Default Cascade Threatens Portfolio Stability
Nigeria's electricity subsidy regime has evolved from a fiscal policy challenge into a crystallized insurance risk event. Generation companies are owed approximately ₦4 trillion as of mid-2025, comprising ₦2 trillion for 2024 electricity supplied and ₦1.9 trillion in legacy...
Africa holds 30% of global mineral reserves critical to the energy transition-including over 70% of global cobalt production from the Democratic Republic of Congo, substantial lithium deposits across Zimbabwe, DRC, and Mali, and significant graphite reserves in Mozambique.
